Yarra isn’t full of people, it’s full of cars
Melbourne’s population
Greater Melbourne’s population is increasing toward 8 million by 2050 and the built area is expanding outwards. Both trends increase traffic congestion in inner city suburbs, as described in this video from the City of Moonee Valley:
Yarra’s population
Yarra’s residential population is expected to increase by 80% to 2050, owing to the state government’s target of 44,000 extra dwellings by 2050 as part of Plan for Victoria, and business is also growing, bringing more workers and commuters.
Population is good for business
More people in the neighbourhood means more business for our local traders. The challenge is to ensure that everyone can access local shops. Infrastructure Victoria has shown, via the KPMG Melbourne Activity Based Model (MABM), that multiple streets in Yarra are already at capacity. We don’t have the space for 80% more people to drive or park. If more people attempt to drive and park, congestion will be severe, which worsens access for everyone, including those who are trying to walk, bike, or take the tram.
Gridlock before 2050
Congestion is a non-linear effect; it increases at a faster rate than population, and then transitions suddenly to gridlock. Considering that some streets are already at capacity, with our forecasted population growth it is clear that many of Yarra’s streets are facing gridlock before 2050, and some streets before 2030. This would be a bad outcome for residents, ratepayers and businesses.
Suggestions
As other world class cities have proven, the best way to decongest a city is to:
- reallocate space and budget toward active transport
- introduce decongestion charges
- change planning schemes to impose parking maximums
It takes time to plan, consult, design, finance and build alterations to our transport infrastructure (and our planning scheme). It’s not professional or pragmatic to delay investment until gridlock has occurred. Considering the investment required, If we wish to avoid gridlock, we need to start now, investing $10m per year in active transport.
Cities continue to grow, and there is simply not enough space if everyone keeps relying on the car. That reality forces a choice: how do we use the limited space we have? Increasingly, the answer is to give less room to cars and more room to cycling, walking and greenery.
It’s pro-car to invest in active transport
Many people prefer or need to own, use and park a car. The same applies to business (deliveries) or essential services (emergency vehicles). If we maintain ‘business as usual’, and gridlock occurs on many streets, these people, businesses & services won’t be able to get around and our economy will be impacted. To maintain at least some ability to drive through Yarra, we need to enable many other people to choose to walk or cycle. People won’t choose to walk or cycle unless it is safe, convenient and enjoyable, which requires investment in infrastructure for active transport. Thus, it’s pro-car to invest in active transport.
Guidance for city leaders
Guidance for Mayors and other City Leaders is available from the book ‘Decongestion‘ by Rachel Smith:
